Part One of Thinking Better
Surprise, Critics and Error Correction
Last week, we had a refresher on ruin. Long before we make a mess of things, we start down a gradual path of poor decision making.
The book referenced above is filled with practical examples of the different ways we fool ourselves. The book’s been around a while, and is probably at your local library.
The whole time I was reading the book, I was thinking…
How am I going to avoid falling into these traps?
I’ll add to what you will find in the book.
The goal being to help both of us “think better.”
Better thinking defined as:
Fewer errors.
Less damage from inevitable errors.
Being able to see errors.
As you’ll see over-and-over-and-over in the book… we ALL make errors of judgement and are prone to bias.
My approach helps me “be less stupid.”
One tip to start things off…
Admit Small Errors, Frequently1
I make mistakes all the time, don’t you?
The Value of Surprise
Different from being wrong… surprise is a non-threatening emotion.
With an understanding of risk-over-time (see footnote 3 from last week) we often learn surprise is a misunderstanding of our risk exposure
Surprise = Misunderstanding of Reality
Surprise can alert us to incorrect views, biases and opinions.
Ideally, we want to write down situation that surprise us. The reason being…
Repeated surprises indicate blindspots.
In my life I’ve had, and seen, many surprises:
Infidelities
Frauds
Embezzlements
Collectively, you and I have lived through surprises that weren’t all that surprising…
Bank collapses due to extreme leverage.
Terrorist attacks.
Unprovoked invasions of neighboring countries.
I don’t spend time on macro issues, forecasting or prediction.
Rather, I write down surprises and spend time making sure my blindspots don’t cost me.
The largest blindspot many of us face:
The role of metabolic fitness on healthy aging.
Specifically, the role metabolic health plays in delaying dementia, heart disease and stroke.
It’s a collective blindspot for most families.2
A Team of Rivals
The team of rivals comes up all the time when we read about President Lincoln. The story is in the book.
What does this require of me & you?
First up, we need to acknowledge that each of our brains is hardwired to ignore, and close off dissent.
We will ALWAYS have a good reason for doing this. If we can’t see our own patterns of self-justification then the book has plenty of examples. From there we can notice other people’s justifications. It’s going to require effort to spot our own.
The team of rivals can be built inside our heads.
How might we do that?
DELAY: as soon as we make a decision, our brain swings into confirmation mode.
Keep the decision window open.
The longer the window is open, the more freedom we have to revise our opinions.
This habit drives my family crazy.
I resist hypotheticals.
While I write down options, privately, I limit public pronouncements.
I will deal with that, when I need to deal with that…
GRATITUDE FOR CRITICS (who aren’t asses): be grateful for people, who create dissonance inside our heads.
These people can drive us crazy, but they are treasures.
What I mean…
Change is uncomfortable. When someone we respect points out we might need to change… we will feel pain and resistance inside of us.
First:
Notice pain
Notice resistance
That’s the signal there could be valuable information nearby.
Pause & think it through.
What are the conditions where this advice would be the correct thing to do?
Is there any downside to making this change?3
Next:
Take pride in being able to change.4
Change slowly.
Bias change towards removal.
Warning Signs of Error
I feel risk before I can see it.
Nervousness
Raising My Voice
Anger
Many are unaware when they are raising their voice.
Once our defense mechanisms kick in, we share an inability to hear.
In the book, there’s a great section on memory.
Next time, I’ll share some tips on memory, for yourself, your family and your institution.
Kids love catching adults in error. Each time they do, and we admit it… we can lower the stakes for their future selves to think better.
More on this in Whealthspan by Scott B. Fulton. If you like True Wealth then you’ll enjoy Scott’s book. I make an appearance in Chapter 14: Active Booty, Active Brain.
Nearly always, the changes recommended in my life have to do with soft skills. These skills have ZERO downside, but are often resisted by people with my personality type.
What I do best => I will take your best idea and implement it consistently over long time horizons.